Bernoulli's Fallacy

Aubrey Clayton traces the history of the flaw that underlies modern statistics, beginning with the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it.

Aubrey Clayton

Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1. What Is Probability? 2. The Titular Fallacy 3. Adolphe Quetelet's Bell Curve Bridge 4. The Frequentist Jihad 5. The Quote-Unquote Logic of Orthodox Statistics 6. The Replication Crisis/Opportunity 7. The Way Out Notes Bibliography Index